Aqueduct selections - Michael Nunamaker
Aqueduct Thursday March 12, 2015
Race #1
Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 GINGEE 5-2 64 65 0.00
2 KEEN ON GREEN 9-2 74 76 1.42
5 BELLA FACHI 5-1 67 71 1.52
3 STAGE NAME 6-1 68 75 1.89
6 SHARPANDWITTY 12-1 65 76 3.43
Commentary
GINGEE Highest earnings per start.
KEEN ON GREEN Big pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
BELLA FACHI Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
STAGE NAME Big back speed advantage.
Race #2
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 BRIDGETTA 7-2 74 87 0.00
6 KEEP BUSTIN 5-1 74 83 0.60
4 WISE AWAKE 6-1 62 81 1.03
3 RUN A DUBB DUBB 6-1 70 82 1.09
1 WISDOM OF OZ 7-1 72 80 1.30
Commentary
BRIDGETTA Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
KEEP BUSTIN Slight back speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
WISE AWAKE Speed improved in last outing.
RUN A DUBB DUBB Highest average purse value.
WISDOM OF OZ Slight speed advantage.
Race #3
Proficiency: Samples=15152 W%=30.9 Net=1.81 Net4+=2.27
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 C C'S PRIDE 8-5 75 80 0.00
3 TAYLOR JAGGER 5-2 69 69 0.76
5 STAR OF THE FOREST 3-1 67 69 1.41
6 VINHDICATION SPOT 66-1 74 79 6.57
7 FLOATING ALONE 134-1 66 74 7.73
Commentary
C C'S PRIDE Modest pace advantage. Slight back speed advantage.
TAYLOR JAGGER Slight speed advantage. Showed surprise early speed in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
STAR OF THE FOREST Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
FLOATING ALONE Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #4
Proficiency: Samples=3269 W%=33.9 Net=1.94 Net4+=1.92
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 H MAN 7-2 62 67 0.00
4 BOLDLEE 8-1 76 78 1.57
5 EL GRILLO 8-1 66 66 1.60
3 WILD FREUD 8-1 76 82 1.63
8 GHOST SHIP 10-1 74 77 1.95
Commentary
H MAN Highest earnings per start.
BOLDLEE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
EL GRILLO Long recent workout is a good sign. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Bid but hung in last.
WILD FREUD Slight pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Three consecutive decreases in speed rating!
GHOST SHIP A well worked out horse.
Race #5
Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 PARTY ON 9-5 64 78 0.00
3 FIDELIUS 5-2 61 83 0.73
1 LEATHERHEAD LURIE 9-1 69 80 3.52
11 APRETTYSMOOTHGUY 14-1 no starts 4.70
8 SIR MAURICE 16-1 65 71 4.76
Commentary
PARTY ON Speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
FIDELIUS Class drop should help.
LEATHERHEAD LURIE Pace advantage. Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed in last. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
APRETTYSMOOTHGUY Workout within three days helps.
SIR MAURICE Back speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Race #6
Proficiency: Samples=8797 W%=35.2 Net=1.88 Net4+=2.51
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 JAZZMINEGEM 3-1 76 84 0.00
4 DARN THAT TRIP 7-2 76 89 0.62
5 SAHARAN SERENADE 6-1 67 82 1.38
12 MY WON LOVE 6-1 78 86 1.62
3 MOONLIT SONNET 7-1 80 70 1.85
Commentary
JAZZMINEGEM No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
DARN THAT TRIP Slight back speed advantage.
SAHARAN SERENADE Highest average purse value.
MY WON LOVE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
MOONLIT SONNET Modest pace advantage. Four consecutive decreases in speed rating!!
Race #7
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 GLICKMAN 5-2 86 94 0.00
6 DON TITO 7-2 73 84 0.93
12 CAY TO POMEROY 6-1 77 90 1.91
5 BACK FORTY 10-1 72 85 2.94
9 MOP HEAD 15-1 78 81 3.69
Commentary
GLICKMAN Huge pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Huge class drop should help.
DON TITO Big back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.
CAY TO POMEROY Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
BACK FORTY Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed in last.
MOP HEAD Three consecutive decreases in speed rating!
Race #8
Proficiency: Samples=14695 W%=31.3 Net=1.85 Net4+=2.10
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 ATLANTIC'S SMILE 2-1 84 90 0.00
6 FRIVOLITY 4-1 78 88 1.40
3 HOT RENDEZVOUS 6-1 71 74 2.30
2 MAKE THE MOMENT 7-1 76 83 2.46
5 MISSZIPPITYSLEWDA 10-1 76 85 3.15
Commentary
ATLANTIC'S SMILE Big pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
FRIVOLITY Slight back speed advantage. Three consecutive good finishes.
HOT RENDEZVOUS Highest earnings per start at today's track.
MAKE THE MOMENT No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Race #9
Proficiency: Samples=5043 W%=34.6 Net=1.93 Net4+=2.30
PN Horse Name Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 FERZETTI 9-5 61 77 0.00
12 ALICE AND TRIXIE 4-1 63 81 1.66
2 DELIGHTFUL ERIN 5-1 76 85 2.18
9 HIDDENITE 8-1 76 76 2.93
1 SINGLE MALT FEMALE 12-1 56 68 3.82
Commentary
FERZETTI Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
ALICE AND TRIXIE Slight speed advantage. Big back speed advantage. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
DELIGHTFUL ERIN Slight pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
Best Bet of the day
Race 9 FERZETTI
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.