Selections
by Ellis Starr for Santa Anita – Sunday 03/15/15
Mission Statement:
To help you be a better handicapper
and bettor with uncommon selections and analysis.
Motto:
"Friends don't let friends bet chalk."
Guide to using these selections and analysis: The names listed in BOLD are the horses I think have the highest probability to win.
Next to each name are my minimum ‘fair odds’, a guide for making
win bets. You can consider win bets at ‘fair odds’ or higher,
starting with the top choice. If a horse is listed as a contender but below the
minimum fair odds it can still be used in the exacta and other wagers. The
second best contender to win isn't necessarily the best horse to run second so
even though horses are ranked in order that doesn't mean they will (or won't)
finish in that order. When I feel an
exacta is warranted I specifically say so.
Guide
to Ratings:
- Predictable race that may not offer opportunity
for profit, or unpredictable race with profit opportunity if the odds are
high.
- Average race in terms of profit opportunity
depending on the potential returns and odds on ‘win
contenders’.
- Exceptional race for profit opportunity. Whether
any horse in the race present exceptional profit opportunity depends on
the odds and potential payoffs. These races usually have vulnerable
favorites, high odds ‘win contenders’, or both.
Get my detailed
selections & analysis at trackmaster.com, equibase.com & most betting
(ADW) sites
Always Check Program Numbers
Race #1 - Rating = 2
#2 Lolo El Canonero - Fair odds 7/2
#6 Unusual Lover - Fair odds 4/1
The bad news is that the opener
is a non-winners of 2 lifetime claimer so all of these have one win and many
losses and aren’t that trustworthy. The good news is that stretching out
Rambling House, Takeit To the Limit and Rusty Road
should go too fast early to be around late, cutting down the contenders
considerably. Lolo El Canonero should
get first run on the tiring pacesetters and improve off his 4th to 2nd rally
(beaten a neck) last month over the track at the level at 7 furlongs. Unusual Lover rallied for 3rd against these
one before last when returning from a 16 month layoff and would’ve
improved but was tried on turf and against tougher off that effort and ran
poorly. Back on dirt and at the right level he can run by many if not all of
these late.
Race #2 - Rating = 3
#5 Congrats Seattle - Fair odds 2/1
#4 Tiz Jolie - Fair odds 2/1
Congrats
Seattle gets a dream trip with Two Six Wins, Signature Cat and possibly
Bluegrass Sight all battling for the early lead, enabling the gelding to run
just as he did a month ago at this 7 furlong trip when rallying from 6th to
win. Running first off the Diodoro claim but with Espinoza riding, and being
the only horse in the field with a win at the trip he's very logical to win
again. If not, Tiz Jolie gets it
done repeating his last effort, on 2/14, versus similar at a mile when rallying
from 3rd. The cut back a furlong helps his late kick and Trujillo is riding
very hot right now, having booted home a $41 winner on Thursday as well.
Race #3 - Rating = 1
#4 Backstreet Lisa - Fair odds 5/2
#5 Chia Love - Fair odds 7/2
#1 Racing for Chasen - Fair odds 7/2
Backstreet
Lisa may be a LONE FRONTRUNNER here in a fairly short field just as she was
last October when breaking her maiden at this mile trip (but on turf). She
showed too much early speed last out and tired but drops in class and has no
speed inside of her so gets the rail in the first few yards and could prove
hard to catch once again. Chia Love closed
from 2nd to win last out over the track at the trip, Bejarano up for the 1st
time and riding back, the filly with improving do so (as she'll need to going
from maidens to winners) 2nd off the layoff. Racing for Chasen rallied from 3rd to win going away over the track
at 7 furlongs 3 back one race after adding blinkers and although disappointing
in two since has a shot here to save ground and pass a few at the least in the
stretch.
Race #4 - Rating = 0
For multi-race wagers like the
pick 3, use #3 Uptown Rhythem, #6 George's Main Man and #9
Market Order. Otherwise pass. With Next Right stuck on the rail, forcing
this horse with early speed to go very fast, and with Preordained having the same
style, they should both tire. Uptown Rhythem drops into a maiden claimer for
the first time, George's Main Man does the same and Market Order debuts for a
good trainer of first time starter winners (Kitchingman) and with a good
outside post.
Race #5 - Rating = 2
#6 Approved to Fly - Fair odds 3/1
#5 Theralena - Fair odds 3/1
#7 Bilger's Surprise - Fair odds 3/1
If you want to go deeper, also
consider #4 Seattle Salt, #1 Chaulk O Lattery and #9 Scuti de Patuti
Approved
to Fly may be a debuting 5 year old but is still somewhat well regarded as she
makes her debut in a straight maiden race, and it's no wonder considering her
breeding. Five of her six siblings are winners, one of them a full brother who
won 2nd out after finishing 2nd in its debut and was a stakes winner, while 2
of the other four won 2nd time out and another won in its debut. The race is
weak for the level and she's bred to like the sod so why not, particularly with
Trujillo riding. Theralena tried
this downhill turf trip for the first time last out, on 2/15, beaten just 3
lengths in a field of 11. She's going to improve and may be a price again. Bilger's Surprise rallied for 3rd in that same
race and with Nakatani riding back and likely to improve off that trip and a
slow break could be right there at the wire today.
Race #6 - Rating = 2
#8 Erte - Fair odds 2/1
#3 Abets Abet - Fair odds 3/1
Exactas: 8 over 3,5,6,9,10 and (REVERSE) 3,5,6,9,10 with 8
#5 is Desert Thief, #6 is Clem
Juice, #9 is Ritzy Tags and #10 is Seek Safe Harbor
Consider all six for multi-race
wagers played.
Erte is the Key
to exacta profit at the least in this situation, having won over the track one
before last in her first dirt sprint start then following that up with a
rallying 2nd place finish under identical conditions. She has a good stalking
style which plays well if Desert Thief and Clem Juice go early as I expect they
will, and with Trujillo up for the win 2 back and not up last out but getting
back on all the cards seem to be in order. Abets
Abet finished okay for 3rd last out, for 4th before that, and got up to win
before that. Pereira rides her very well and should get her going late as the
pacesetters fade, noting she's not usually bet (36/1 last out) and could run a
lot better than her odds suggest perhaps like trainer Harrington's Swissarella,
who won and paid $41 on Thursday.
Race #7 - Rating = 2
#8 Rosalind/#1 Testa Rossi - Fair odds 2/1
(uncoupled entry)
#5 Queen of the Sand - Fair odds 3/1
#4 Diversy Harbor - Fair odds 3/1
The field in this year's Santa
Anita Stakes is strong BUT the shippers from other parts have an edge,
particularly the ones from the strong Chad Brown barn, Rosalind and Testa Rossi, the former being the reason
Joel Rosario is in town and foregoing an entire day of mounts at Gulfstream
Park, the latter getting current leading rider Bejarano. Rosalind changed trainers sometime
between her 8th place Valley View effort in a October
and her big comeback last month in the Grade 3 Suwanee River Stakes when
rallying to miss by a length. She got the last 1/8 of a mile at this 9 furlong
trip in 11.8, real racehorse time, and Rosario was up then as well as today so
she could be tough to beat particularly with a field high 110 Equibase Speed
Figure to improve upon 2nd off the layoff. Testa
Rossi was also coming back from a layoff in her most recent race, 1/31, in the
Grade 3 Endeavour Stakes at Tampa. She rallied very nicely but was steadied and
impeded late so was awarded the win after originally finishing 2nd. Her 105
figure effort bears improving upon as well so Brown's 1-2 punch will be tough
to beat.
The local contingent is led by Queen of the Sand, runner-up in the Grade 1
Matriarch when last seen on 11/30. Smith has been up for all 3 of her U.S. wins
and her very consistent four straight 107-108 figures suggest she's a
formidable threat today. Diversy Harbor won the
Grade 2 Buena Vista over the course at a mile and missed by a nose at this 9
furlong trip prior to that, Stevens up for both and in the saddle again. Her
best effort yielded a 104 figure so she would need to improve about 1-2 lengths
to be there at the finish with the other 3 contenders but being a newly turned
4 year old that's a strong possibility.
Race #8 - Rating = 1
#7 Honey Ride - Fair odds 2/1
#6 Enduring Erin - Fair odds 3/1
#3 Interject - Fair odds 3/1
Exacta: Box 3,6,7
Honey
Ride returned from 3 months off last month and was just a bit short of being
fit enough to win as she made the lead in the stretch and ended up 2nd, clearly
so. Rosario was in town for that race and as he's here for the stakes sticks
around to ride her here, making her the one to beat 2nd off the layoff. Enduring Erin won nicely at 9 furlongs on turf
when last seen on 12/31 and has won on dirt as well, Desormeaux up for the last
win and riding her back, so I expect her to be finishing strongly and be part
of the exacta at the least. Interject won by 6
around two turns over the track one before last when breaking her maiden then
could only manage 4th of 8 last out in the race Honey Ride finished 2nd in.
Favored at even money that day she disappointed badly but maybe her 2nd start
at the level might see improved form and Bejarano riding back is a good sign as
well.
Race
#9 - Rating = 2
#5 Redheads Rule - Fair odds 8/5
#6 Showcase Winner - Fair odds 3/1
#7 Oui Cat Oui - Fair odds 5/1
#3 Avenge - Fair odds 5/1
#1 Boat Drinks - Fair odds 5/1
Trifecta: 5 over 6 over 1,3,7 and also
5 over 1,3,6,7 over 1,3,6,7
Redheads
Rule tried the downhill turf course for the 1st time last out, on 1/9, her
2nd career start, and ran HUGE as she rallied from 7th to make the lead late
and was in a 3 horse blanket finish at the end, missing by just 3/4 of a
length. BOTH the winner and 2nd finishers came back to win and she should
follow in their footsteps with Rosario staying around to ride the nightcap
instead of catching an early flight back to Florida.
Showcase
Winner showed a lot of early speed in a mile turf race last out when leading for
the first 6 furlongs and could be a lot better at this shorter trip. Oui Cat Oui didn't show much in her debut
last month, at the trip, but hopped in the air to lose all chance and trainer
Casse's 2nd time starters perform at a very much above average rate (30% wins)
so she gets a look, possibly at a price. Avenge finished
4th and Boat Drinks 2nd down
the hill on 2/14 when the winner of Readheads Rule's 1/9 race (Entrechat) came
back to win and both can improve as well off the experience.
Get my detailed
selections & analysis at trackmaster.com, equibase.com & most betting
(ADW) sites
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analysis every Friday at Equibase.com. Listen to me 6-7 eastern
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