TrackMaster Tips August 2001

Easy as 1.. 2.. 3.. 4 tips for the Pick 4

By Craig Walker - TrackMaster, An Equibase Company

The newest bet to become a staple at thoroughbred and harness tracks across the country is the Pick 4. Belmont Park, Hollywood Park, and Churchill Downs now offer this bet as well as numerous other tracks. This bet offers a great wagering opportunity for the small player to make a big score. By using the Pick 4 Template provided, an affordable set of tickets can be played to give you a better chance at cashing in on this terrific investment.

You really should print this out to follow the information below most effectively.

This Pick 4 Template is a guide to constructing a series of tickets to play the Pick 4 efficiently. You will be marking nine different tickets and spending a total of $26. Your single can be in any leg of the Pick 4. Designate this race as "Race x". The three remaining races will then be "Race a", "Race b", and "Race c." For example, if the Pick 4 is in Races 5 thru 8 and your single is in Race 6, then Race 5 is Race a, Race 6 is Race x, Race 7 is Race b, and Race 8 is Race c. If you are using betting cards, it is easiest to mark the horse that is your single (Race x) on all nine tickets, and then proceed to mark the tickets one by one. You can of course, also use a touch screen self-serve betting machine to make your wagers.

The template is laid out to make playing your tickets as easy as possible once you have ranked your contenders. Your single of course must win in order to have a chance to hit all four winners. Depending on the ranking of your contenders, you have a good chance of winning if your contenders win their races. However, since we are not covering the races with a 4 x 4 x 4 x 1 ticket ($64), not all combinations of your contenders winning their races will hand you the Pick 4. We have attempted to optimize your money using the template.

You can use these four easy steps to play the Pick 4 like a professional.

1. Handicap the races and get a contenders list.

2. Rate the contenders.

3. Use the template to mark your tickets.

4. Make your wagers and enjoy the races.

Step 1. Handicap the races, as you normally would, using any of your favorite methods, information sources, etc. We also recommend getting an outsiders point of view, such as the Winners Circle Selections of one of our expert handicappers. When playing the exotics it helps to have a different perspective to cash in on the big money on a regular basis. No matter how good a handicapper you are, you still have a certain style of handicapping which will cause you to overlook or minimize certain types of information. This bias is fine for straight betting, but will cost you dearly when you tackle the exotic wagers. Many times one of the winners in a Pick 4 or one of the slots in a trifecta is a horse that couldn't be picked using your methods. It isn't your second or third rated horse that beats you, but some "outsider" who may have virtues you might have overlooked. The selections of another solid handicapper can help eliminate this problem.

Step 2. Solidify your contender's list and rank the horses. When using the template, you will need four contenders in three of the races and one single. Take your time and go over the reasons why you think each horse is a contender. How you rank each horse in each race is very important, since the higher ranked horses will be included on more tickets. It is important to have a strong single, which you believe has an excellent chance of winning. If you can get a nice price on your single it is a bonus.

Step 3. Follow the template provided to put your tickets together. You will be marking nine different tickets and spending a total of $26. Use betting cards or a self-serve betting machine to make your wagers.

Step 4. After marking your tickets, turn them into a mutual clerk or run them through a self-serve machine yourself. Double check your tickets, making sure all tickets were processed correctly and that the correct program numbers are on your tickets. Sit back and enjoy the races.

In our example, we will be using a combination of the Platinum Past Performance method from May's TrackMaster Tips newsletter and Ellis Starr's Selections from Hollywood Park on 6/24/01. Anyone who is playing the exotics in any manner should definitely be calling upon one of our talented handicappers to help them attack the exotic pools. By using another solid handicapper's choices, you can catch horses that you may have overlooked. It's like having another set of eyes and ears to help you profit.

Hollywood Park June 24th, 2001 - Pick 4 - Races 6 thru 9.

Scratched Horses

Race 6: #5 Pennysenyen

Race 8: #2 High Walden

Race 9: #6 Banquero

Race 6 (our "a" race): This is a tough race. The four highest rated horses are #6 Mcadam - 73.5, #3 Dancing Afleet - 71.8, #1 Ben Saw San 71.5 and #7 I Gotcha Covered - 70.3. Ellis has #1 Ben Saw San and #4 El Nativo 6/1 rated equally, trying to beat the favorite #3 Dancing Afleet. Going with a combination of rankings and Ellis' views, we go with:

Contender A: #6 Mcadam 4/1

Contender B: #3 Dancing Afleet 9/5

Contender C: #1 Ben Saw San 5/1

Contender D: #4 El Nativo 6/1

Race 7 (our "b" race): The top four rated horses are #6 General Store - 86.0, #9 Doc N Jag - 78.5, #4 Imperial King - 78.0, and #8 Jacquie's Delight - 73.0. Ellis has #5 Devil's Horn as the top pick, #3 Bring The Heat (a first time starter) as the second choice, and #7 Bonus Money (a first time starter) as his third choice. In Straight Maiden and Maiden Claiming Races it is a good idea to play the first time starters if only one horse has strong numbers or all the horses that have run have weak numbers. While #6 General Store does have a high rating in our method, those numbers were garnered from a 4.5 furlong race 414 days ago, so he should be treated with caution. If General Store had run more recently, in a race within half a furlong of today's distance or was a proven winner, then he would have been the obvious top choice. Since there is such a big gap between the suspect horse and the rest of the field, it is best to go with Ellis' opinion in this race and use General Store as a saver.

Contender A: #5 Devil's Horn 6/1

Contender B: #3 Bring The Heat 6/1

Contender C: #7 Bonus Money 8/1

Contender D: #9 General Store 4/1

Race 8 (our "c" race): The top four rated horses are #3 Astra - 87.5, #1 Happyanunoit - 87.3, #6 Kalypso Katie - 83.5, and #4 Polaire - 76.2. Ellis likes Kalypso Katie, but mainly because of the odds. "No huge knocks against either Happyanunoit or Astra but both will be odds-on or close to it and can't be bet to win." We're playing a Pick 4 not making a win bet.

Contender A: #3 Astra 7/5

Contender B: #1 Happyanunoit 8/5

Contender C: #7 Kalypso Katie 4/1

Contender D: #4 Polaire (Ire) 10/1

Race 9 (our "x" race): This is definitely a race to single #1 Triplane. Ellis says "this first time starter from Harris Farms could be a "something" in a nothing race here. With a very swift (2nd best of 20) six furlong workout and lasix for his debut, the gelding should get a good trip and be there from bell to wire at a very decent price (12/1)." The ratings for the top four horses are: #11 Amazing Stone - 74.8, #8 Ride And Shine - 72.3, #5 Air'nsea - 71.0, #9 Trego High - 67.0. Our ratings back up Ellis' premise that this is a weak field.

Single: #1 Triplane 12/1

Next, we use the template to construct our tickets.

Remember to double-check your tickets when you mark them and after you receive your tickets. You can never be too careful.

The Pick 4 winning numbers were 1-3-3-1. Ticket #1 of the tickets we played had the winning combination for a sweet payoff of $1,002.40. [Do you really think I would have chosen a day that we would not win?] Of course you're not going to hit everyday, and you're not always going to cash a big payoff when you do. If you play the Pick 4 in an efficient manner, such as this, and use good handicapping, you'll be on your way to some nice profits with this exciting wager.

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